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Assessing the sustainability of European tourism
Professor Iscte Business School
Researcher BRU-Iscte
A Marie Curie Postdoctoral Fellowship brought a researcher from Montenegro to work at Iscte on a project that seeks a quantitative and qualitative approach to tourism and its impacts on the environment and places. The great challenge of this research is conducting sectoral radiography in 27 European countries
The TOURSUS-EU project aims to assess the sustainability of tourism through an innovative macro and micro approach. Can you explain?
We say it is creative because it conducts an exhaustive survey of indicators related to tourism activity in 27 European countries. It analyses mass tourism, urban tourism, with data from the European Commission itself, with which we will see the evolution over time—with different peaks, as happened during the pandemic.
On the one hand, tourists bring income to the local population, and tourism is economically favourable and an export. Still, on the other hand, it also causes sustainability problems at an economic, social, and environmental level. It is a question of noise pollution, but also aspects related to the fact that there is no more space for the local population to live.
At the macro level, we will survey different countries of the European Union to see how the flow of tourists has evolved. We will also interview local people to understand people's perceptions; we have already started this task in Lisbon. We want to understand what causes people inconvenience concerning tourist activity and determine how to mitigate the negative aspects.
At the micro level, three cities were selected: Lisbon, Venice, and Split (Croatia). We have already started working in Lisbon. The survey has been taking place in Venice since April, and the study in Split will occur in October 2024. We will collect data and then compare the three cities.
What is the reason for choosing these three cities for the comparative analysis: Lisbon, Venice, and Split?
They are similar cities in terms of tourist demand and supply. All three receive a lot of tourists and have an over-tourism problem. It will be essential to understand if the factors and perceptions of the local population are similar or show different perspectives. We want to measure the impact of mass tourism by analysing data from tourism destinations listed as UNESCO World Heritage Sites.
Will substantial amounts of European Union data on tourism activity in the twenty-seven countries be used as the methodology?
This research uses state-of-the-art analytical knowledge and methods, including dynamic panel models, time series analysis, multicriteria decision analysis, and extensive data analysis. The data series we are going to analyse is between 2000 and 2024. Only in this way can we create time series in panels and then use econometric techniques to analyse this evolution.
There are already areas in Lisbon where it works as if in a ghetto, where people do not know how to deal with each other. Insecurity derives from a need for more understanding of distinct cultures
Are there identified key points or angles of observation to make this analysis?
The data collected in Lisbon already provide something at the micro level. For example, small and medium-sized enterprises—restaurants and shops—often complain about noise pollution. This is, moreover, a reality that those who live in the capital know. Noise pollution is the noise caused by the large influx of tourists that economically benefits some small, medium, or micro-enterprises, but the population cannot sleep either. Other key points of the analysis identify pollution and then prices.
Since tourists can afford to pay more for short-term rentals, house prices inflate. The same is true of consumer goods, food, and others. This is justified by the influx of tourists, who, of course, have greater economic capacity. People complain of some insecurity related to tourism, not least because many tourists drink too much, which has consequences. Another critical point was identified: immigration.
How is immigration connected with tourism?
Immigration is identified as a problem because the people surveyed consider that it can bring positive things. Still, it can also have other negative ones: they have some difficulty perceiving the differences between cultures because they do not know the cultures of the other. Many restaurant or food delivery workers are immigrants. Public authorities may have a gap here, as they need to find spaces and ways for people from distinct cultures to get to know each other. There are already areas in Lisbon where it works as if in a ghetto, where people do not know how to deal with each other. Insecurity derives from a need for more understanding of distinct cultures. There is also the side of people who are migrants and who certainly do not understand the side of the Portuguese either. Immigrants also have shops and often feel out of context. There needs to be more intercultural dialogue between the various communities. Insecurity can be mutual.
How can tourism be measured for sustainability? In other words, what methodologies and stages will this project follow?
In the more micro part of the research work, we are using a more qualitative analysis; the interviewees will be classified, and we will create clusters and understand exactly, in detail, the major positive and negative areas. We will compare this data with that of the other cities. We will also try to see whether, with data from the cities themselves, we can create a dashboard on each with indicators, such as pollution, noise level, the evolution of economic activity, etc., over time and establish a correlation on the evolution of these indicators. This will help you understand how each city stands and what it tries to do to deal with the problems.
The macro analysis is based on data from the European Union, such as energy demand, per capita income, CO2 levels, water consumption, etc. With accurate data, we will cross-reference the presence of tourists. In this way, we can get a sense of evolution. This should be done in 2024, and the project ends in 2025. We will publish scientific papers, organise public events, and participate in conferences to disseminate the data collected and share knowledge.
From what has already been said, this is a very exhaustive piece of research. Is there a team working on it?
Ana Gardasevic* is working on this project with the support of a master's student. We also involve people from other countries, notably Italy and Croatia, respectively, at the Università Ca' Foscari and the University of Split. Professors from these universities work on this project, although it is based at Iscte. I must underline that it was not easy to get a Marie Curie Postdoctoral Fellowship, especially being a project associated with sustainability, which is a topic so dear to Iscte.
*
Ana Gardasevic
Following the Horizon Europe MSCA Postdoctoral Fellowship call in 2022, one of the applications with BRU-Iscte as the host institution succeeded. Ana Gardasevic, from Montenegro, arrived in Lisbon in July to conduct the project TOURSUS-EU – Assessing Tourism Sustainability in the EU Region: A Quantitative Approach, supervised by Sandra Loureiro.
The TOURSUS-EU proposal aims to contribute to the definition and transition to a more sustainable tourism model and to introduce an innovative approach to measuring the impact of mass tourism on the economy and society, which is one of the EU's main problems. The Montenegrin researcher says that she is, so far, delighted with this challenge that she has embraced at Iscte.
Finally, what can we expect from the results and evidence of the project?
We will have a series of guidelines with recommendations for these three cities. It will be a kind of carte blanche with recommendations but without the results—a soft document.
Therefore, holding an event here at Iscte with Turismo de Portugal and other entities would be interesting.
On the other hand, Marie Curie indicates that the researcher, in this case Ana Gardasevic, is leveraged as an added value for the research. She is a researcher with solid econometrics and quantitative analysis skills but felt more comfortable in the qualitative part. One of the advantages will be to enrich yourself with knowledge of quantitative and qualitative mixes. It will be an asset to her as a researcher. We also hope to provide policymakers with a more straightforward framework for managing tourism in the European Union and UNESCO cities, contributing to a global carbon footprint in tourism below 8% (the current reference value for international carbon emissions resulting from tourism activity).