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Mestrado • Mestrado em Matemática Financeira

Forecasting clean-energy assets returns : An introduction to Markov regime switching models

Autor
Saraiva, Afonso Caseira da Cruz Calado
Acesso
Acesso restrito
Palavras-chave
Returns
Retornos
Clean energy
Econometria -- Econometrics
Markov regime switching
Energia limpa
Mudanças de regime de Markov
Resumo
PT
EN
This thesis investigates the predictability of daily returns on the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) using Markov Regime Switching (MRS) models. The main hypothesis is that clean energy markets do not move in a single, stable pattern: periods of high volatility and drawdowns alternate with calmer, growth-oriented phases. A secondary objective was to investigate if exogenous predictors, and more specifically, clean-energy related uncertainty indices would improve models performance. Results show that allowing for multiple regimes improves in- sample results relative to single-regime benchmarks. Additionally, the ARX and MS-ARX, based on graphical representation appear to have the best out of sample performance.

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