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Portugal enters the watchlist of potential autocratising countries for the first time in the Democracy Report 2026, published by the V-Dem Institute. 'The watchlist exists because there has been, in recent years, a fairly rapid and pronounced decline in some liberal democracy indicators,' explains Tiago Fernandes, researcher at the Centre for International Studies (CEI-Iscte) and co-author, with Sara Pina (Universidade Lusófona), of the Portugal chapter of the report. Fernandes is also co-editor of the report and director of the Varieties of Democracy Regional Centre for Southern Europe, which publishes the Portuguese-language edition jointly with CEI-Iscte.
Three dynamics lie behind this decline, according to the report's authors. The first is linked to the entry of Chega into parliament, now the second-largest party by representation, and the resulting political polarisation, with parties increasingly unwilling to engage in dialogue and more dismissive of opposing views. The second is unrelated to the far right: it stems from longstanding shortcomings in the democratic system itself, such as access to justice and the state's inability to implement, on the ground, public policies that are positive on paper. The third relates to a 'crisis of the state and state bureaucracy', with the politicisation of the public administration and attacks on the judicial system that cut across all parties. 'I think it has to do, in some way, with the post-pandemic period. The state was not rebuilt as it should have been,' says Fernandes, noting that Portugal has never regained the levels of public investment seen before the 2011-2014 economic crisis.
Despite the decline, Portuguese democracy cannot be said to be in serious crisis, the researcher insists. Portugal ranks 26th out of 179 countries in the Liberal Democracy Index, remaining among the top 10 to 20% most democratic regimes in the world. 'The decline that has occurred is a decline from a level that was very high. There's no need to dramatise it,' the interview concludes.
The Portuguese version of the report is available for consultation here.
